Independent Investigation · Kerr County, Texas
What happened on the Guadalupe — in public records, step by step
Two catastrophic floods hit the same basin twelve months apart. This investigation examines both using gauge records, driller’s logs, monitoring wells, LiDAR, and the State’s own filings — every figure sourced, every computation reproducible. Each part below stands on its own. Start wherever your question is.
The Investigations
Six parts. Three are live and readable now; three are in preparation. They are numbered in the order they were written, not the order they must be read — Part VI will publish ahead of Parts II and III.
Part I
Mockingbird
Did the rain account for the water? — a public-records examination of rainfall, discharge, soil, and the river’s own numbers, step by step.
Enter the investigation →
Part II · Coming Soon
Foundations
The geology and makeup of the Texas Hill Country aquifer formations, their history, and this investigation’s own in-depth study of 60 years of USGS, Texas A&M, and TWDB documentation.
Part III · Coming Soon
Tsunami
The minute-by-minute events that led up to and transpired along the South Fork of the Guadalupe River and downstream July 4, 2025, followed by the behaviors of city officials afterward.
Part IV · The 2026 Storm Ran the Experiment
Checkmate
July 16, 2026 dropped more rain on the same basin, on saturated ground — and made barely 60% of the 2025 flood. Five pages: the ledger, the inversion, the control, the source, and the creek that flooded before the rain.
See the head-to-head →
Part V · One Page That Ends Any Doubt
Killshot
Where the drill bit found the voids: 723 driller logs across Kerr County — the caves, lost circulation, and gypsum that build the karst conduits, mapped well by well, each one linked to its TWDB record.
See every well →
Subway · The Network Underneath
Subway
Three independent maps of the same ground. The state's surface geologic map draws hundreds of faults just north of Kerr County and almost none inside it; the subsurface structure maps put faults with more than five hundred feet of offset within half a kilometre of where both floods began. With the karst well logs, the springs the state's own model carries, and 2025-versus-2026 aerial photography along the South Fork.
Open the map →
Part VI · Two Storms, One Parking Spot
The Anchor
July 4, 2025 and July 16, 2026 as one synchronized radar loop: every KEWX scan from both nights, the anchor zones where the echoes parked for hours, the chains of cell births, and the fault, terrain and groundwater-pressure tests run head to head.
Play both storms →
Part VII · Releasing Out of Order
Providence
The actions of city, county, and state officials before, during, and after the back-to-back flooding catastrophes in Kerr County, Texas.
Live Data & Models
Pressure Watch
Groundwater pressure tracking in real time across Kerr County
The Record
Provenance, preservation, and every revision we watched
Live Conditions
Guadalupe River gauges, Kerr County — live
Lower Trinity Wells
Head above formation top — live tracking
The Mechanism — 3D
The July 4 mechanism, formation by formation
Groundwater Temps
TWDB recorder wells — temperature, depth, and every mapped fault
Camp Mystic — 3D
The camp in 1-m LiDAR: the normal river, what the rain alone could do, and the surveyed flood
South Fork 2D Model
The flood wave, modeled on 1-m terrain — in final development
Storm Radar Archive
Every sensor — July 3–4 and July 15–16 — loops you can slow down
Hydrology Primer
Background viewing
2.2 Hydrology and Hydraulics, a lecture from the Kentucky Water Research Institute. Watching it may begin to give you a very basic understanding of how surface water and groundwater interact. It is not the analysis: the report’s numbers come from the sourced records and documented computations linked in each part.